Climate Change and Africa

01.24.08

Global climate negotiations in 2008 offer international leaders a unique opportunity to address the impact that climate change is having on the world’s poor, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. Climate change is not a crisis of Africa’s making, yet it is African people, especially the poorest, who will suffer the earliest and the most¹. Reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the United Nations Development Program provide the first startling details of the devastating impact climate change could have on African development. These consequences will be directed in the following areas:

• Agricultural Productivity: Agricultural production and food security in sub-Saharan Africa could be seriously undermined by climate change. The areas suitable for agriculture, the length of growing seasons and the yield potential of food staples are all projected to decline². Some African countries could see agricultural yields decrease by 50% by 2050 and crop net revenues could fall by as much as 90% by 2100³. Climate change is also creating systemic conditions for more extreme weather events such as droughts and floods. In the Sahel, one of the world’s regions most vulnerable to drought, rainfall has decreased by an average of 25 % in the past 30 years⁴. By the 2080s, the area vulnerable to drought is projected to increase by 5-8% across Africa⁵.

• Water Security: Changing climate patterns will have important implications for water availability in Africa. Rising temperatures can alter runoff patterns and increase water⁶ evaporation rates, which can severely reduce the availability of water. By 2020, an additional 75-250 million people in Africa are projected to be exposed to increased water stress due to climate change⁷. Across the Horn of Africa, forced adaptation to climate change is already occurring as women walk further to find water in the dry season. In northern Kenya, which has experienced a steady decline in mean annual rainfall over the last 50 years, the increased frequency of droughts means that women are walking greater distances to fetch water, often ranging from 10 to 15 kilometers a day⁸.

• Rising Sea Levels: Across the globe, sea levels could rise rapidly with accelerated ice sheet disintegration. In Africa, highly productive ecosystems, which form the basis for important economic activities such as tourism and fisheries, are located in coastal zones⁹. Towards the end of the 21st century, projected sea level rise in Africa will affect low-lying coastal areas with large populations¹⁰. In total, 70 million people and 30% of the Africa’s coastal infrastructure could face the risk of coastal flooding by 2080 because of rising sea levels¹¹. In Kenya, for example, a one meter sea level would result in losses for mangoes, cashew nuts and coconuts, costing nearly $500 million¹².

• Human Health: Climate change will affect human health through complex systems involving changes in temperature, exposure to extreme events, access to nutrition, air quality and other vectors¹³. For example, climate change threatens to increase the range and transmission potential of malaria. Previously malaria-free highland areas in Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda and Burundi could experience modest incursions of malaria by the 2050s, with conditions for transmission becoming highly suitable by the 2080s¹⁴. In total, an additional 260-320 million people worldwide could be living in malaria infested areas by 2080. Hunger and malnutrition are also health burdens that could increase with climate change. In Ethiopia, children born during a drought are 36% more likely to be malnourished. That translated into some 2 million additional malnourished Ethiopian children after the drought of 2005¹⁵. If not addressed, climate change is estimated to place an additional 80-120 million people at risk of hunger, 70 to 80% of whom live in Africa¹⁶.

• Ecosystems and Biodiversity: The resilience of many ecosystems is likely to be challenged this century by an unprecedented combination of factors related to climate change. Changes induced by climate change are likely to result in species range shifts and changes in tree productivity, adding further stress to forest ecosystems. African places of interest to tourists may suffer, including wildlife areas and parks. Studies predict that 25-40% of mammal species such as zebra could become endangered or extinct by 2080 and that 5,000 African plant species will be faced with substantial reductions in areas suitable for growth by 2085¹⁷.

RESPONDING TO CLIMATE CHANGE: MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION

Climate change is clearly not a crisis of Africa’s making, yet the consequences of global warming will disproportionately hit Africa’s poor. G8 countries represent 13% of the world’s population, but account for over 40% of global greenhouse emissions. Africa, meanwhile, represents 11% of the world’s population but accounts for just 3% of the world’s greenhouse gases emissions – the lowest per capita emissions in the world¹⁸. The state of Texas, with 23 million residents, emits more CO2 than all 720 million residents of sub-Saharan Africa put together. G8 countries have an obligation to immediately curb greenhouse gas emissions and help Africa avoid the worst effects of climate change.

Responding to climate change requires action on two fronts: “mitigation” of climate change by drastically reducing global greenhouse gas emissions and “adaptation” to current and future climate change by preparing for the ramifications. On the mitigation front, the G8 and other developed nations must take action to ensure global temperatures do not increase by more than 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels. They should start by agreeing to a more ambitious global greenhouse reductions framework that requires lowering carbon emissions by 80% from their 1990 levels by 2050, and sourcing 20% of energy from renewable sources by 2020. The annual cost of stabilizing greenhouse gases at such a level could be limited to an average of 1.6% of world GDP to 2030. This is not an insignificant investment by any means, but the cost of inaction could be much greater¹⁹. The Stern Review on the economics of climate change estimates the cost of “business as usual” could reach 5-20% of world GDP annually²⁰.

Secondly, under the “polluter pays” principle widely recognized in wealthy countries, the G8 should provide financing to help the poorest and most vulnerable communities adapt to climate change. Even if immediate and bold action is taken to mitigate CO2 emissions, the world will continue warming for the first half of the 21^st century. The United Nations Development Program’s Human Development Report estimates that poor countries may need as much as $86 billion a year in additional financing by 2015 in order to adapt to the impacts of climate change²¹. This new and substantially higher estimate includes the costs of “climate proofing” physical infrastructure and responding to climate-related disasters, as well as the cost of building the resilience of poor people to climate shocks – in essence, “climate proofing” people. Many of the current approaches to adaptation have focused on climate proofing physical infrastructure and neglected the need to reduce the vulnerability of people through public policy investments, social protection programs and climate proofing existing development programs. These elements are equally crucial to successful adaptation.

Thirdly, the G8 should work closely with African governments and the private sector to chart a low carbon development pathway through the use of effective policies and energy efficient technologies that encourage sustainable development. The Human Development Report has called for the creation of a Climate Change Mitigation Facility to provide $25-50 billion annually in financing for low carbon energy investments in developing countries²².

The G8 countries must ensure that resources for adaptation are additional to their long standing aid commitments. The term adaptation encompasses a broad range of responses that help governments, communities and individuals cope with the impact of climate change. The incremental risks associated with climate change are pushing up the costs of achieving the Millennium Development Goals. For this reason, increases in adaptation financing need to take the form of new and additional resources and must not be diverted from poverty reduction to adaptation. Moreover, financing adaptation is not about charity, it is about compensating poor countries for the damaged caused by polluting countries. As such, donors should explore financing adaptation activities apart from official development assistance through mechanisms such as trading levies or permit auctioning in emerging carbon markets or through a portion of revenue raised from national carbon taxes.

1. “Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change.” November 2006.
2. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Working Group II Report, 13.
3. IPCC, 448.
   
4. UNFCCC, “Background Paper on Impacts, vulnerability andadaptation to climate change,” September 2006, 16.
   
5. International Panel on Climate Change, Working Group II Report, 448.
   
6. UNDP, Human Development Report 2008, “Fighting Climate Change: Human Solidarity in a Divided World,” 94.
   
7. IPCC, 13.
   
8. UNDP, 171.
   
9. IPCC, 450
   
10. IPCC, 13.
    
11. Report on the African Regional Workshop on Adaptation. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. 23 September 2006.
    
12. IPCC, 450.
    
13. UNDP, 105.
    
14. IPCC, 446.
    
15. UNDP, 89.
    
16. Oxfam, “Africa- Up in Smoke?” 6.
    
17. IPCC, 449.
    
18. Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (CAIT) Version 4.0. (Washington, DC: World Resources Institute, 2007).
    
19. World Development Report 2008. pg 8
    
20. “Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change.” November 2006.
    
21. World Development Report 2008. pg 194
    
22. World Development Report 2008. pg 156